Transport Outlook

An article published last year on transportation in China  at Yale's Environment360 site. It's optimistic about the chance for China to take a better, cleaner path.


"Chinese mobility isn’t yet fixated on cars, except maybe in Beijing, where pro-car policies mean that new highways are built as quickly as old ones fill up. An enlightened car policy is key. Stronger metropolitan institutions such as regional planning commissions are needed to protect the environment, manage land development, and provide public transportation. China’s increasingly entrepreneurial culture must be allowed to leapfrog to new technologies that thrive at home and could be exported abroad, such as lightweight, plug-in hybrid vehicles, new electric-car infrastructure advances, and real-time, wireless travel information devices.

Will China actually play a leadership role in transforming vehicles, fuels, mobility, and land use? We think so, for a variety of reasons. For one, some in China are beginning to recognize the Faustian bargain of automotive industry success. They gain jobs, but suffer a raft of environmental, social, and even economic problems. China’s strong national and local governments could pave the way for precedent-setting fiscal and regulatory policies, such as emission-indexed vehicle user fees. The Chinese government is capable of strong and effective intervention, as demonstrated with its one-child policy. Imagine a similar policy applying to car ownership."


Also of note:


China is "well positioned to respond to internal demands and international initiatives. Novel technologies are already sweeping China. Electric two-wheelers are the most successful mass-marketed battery-powered electric vehicles in the world, with sales exceeding 15 million in China in 2007. They have immediate air-quality benefits, set the stage for a shift toward cleaner three- and four-wheel electric vehicles, and accelerate the development of the low-cost battery sector.

University of California, Berkeley

The popularity of electric two-wheelers in China may accelerate the growth of the electric-vehicle industry.

Lee Schipper on Hyper-Motorization

Lee Schipper's recent piece on hypermotorization in Global Asia.

[January, 2010] [ Printed Version] Car Crazy: The Perils of Asia’s Hyper-Motorization By Lee Schipper Asia’s love of vehicles is chokingly and noisily apparent. The number on the roads seems to rise inexorably, so fast in many places that it far outstrips the ability of governments to plan roads and infrastructure for them. But Asian nations desperate to find ways to cope with the clogged roads and foul air in their cities should not despair, says transport scientist Lee Schipper. Asian car ownership overall is tiny compared with the US and Europe. With the right planning and bold vision, it is possible to reclaim the streets and find more sustainable and more efficient transport systems.

Asia is crazy about its wheels. China’s Geely Automobile is set to buy Volvo as auto sales in China boom. In India, Tata Motor has rolled out the Nano, a mini-car for the middle class, while Japan’s Honda sells top-of-the-line two-wheelers in Vietnam. Even rural Laos and Cambodia are abuzz with motorcycles. The world’s most populous region is taking to the road, and many are overjoyed. Motorcycle or motorcar, personal vehicles are a pillar of development and for many a way to escape poverty. But are rapid increases in vehicle ownership a solution to poverty, or are they leading Asia, particularly its cities, to even greater problems? Will Asia’s wheels grind to a halt? The answer is that for many Asian cities, wheels already have ground to a halt. The rapid increases in Asian motorization are no surprise to those of us who study transport. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development’s “Sustainable Mobility” project, backed by a host of major auto and oil companies, foresaw this boom. Concerned about the impact on both carbon dioxide emissions and the oil market, the group’s 2003 report, “Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability,” recommended that the developing world adopt strategies already in use in the West, such as road pricing, vehicle emissions controls, better highways and car pooling as a way to cope with an inevitable rise in vehicle numbers. More recent work by the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects more rapid growth in vehicle ownership in Asia, but it has sounded alarms. Will Asians be better off with far more cars than today? The problem is not individual transportation itself — i.e. vehicle ownership. Rather, it is what I call hyper-motorization, which occurs when individual vehicle ownership rises so fast that authorities cannot cope with the associated problems — traffic fatalities, air pollution, congestion and noise — or more subtle yet difficult issues such as when whole sections of cities are cut off from pedestrian and cycle traffic by the kind of congested highway networks familiar to anyone who has tried to take a stroll through downtown Jakarta, Metro Manila or other mega cities.

From Worldwatch: Vital Signs Online: Auto Industry in Turmoil, but Chinese Production Surges

Vital Signs Online: Auto Industry in Turmoil, but Chinese Production Surges

The year 2009 was one of deep crisis for large parts of the world’s automobile industry, with production and sales that plunged in many countries, factory closings, job loss, and a reshuffling of the leading producers. Production of passenger cars and light trucks declined 13 percent, and sales dropped 6 percent, from 66.2 million light vehicles in 2008 (and the previous peak of 69.4 million in 2007) to 62.4 million in 2009.

Read: Auto Industry in Turmoil, but Chinese Production Surges by Michael Renner

Note - you will need to create an account to read the full report (free)

More Electric Vehicles in Beijing

Cross-posted from China CSR

According to Beijing Youth Daily, Beijing will expand the use of electric vehicles in 2010 and will have a total of 5,000 new energy vehicles by 2012. The city will put an additional 200 electric buses and 1,000 electric sanitation vehicles into service this year.

To promote the production of new energy vehicles, Ministry of Science and Technology joined forces with the departments concerned in 2009 to promote a pilot program under which over ten Chinese cities are scheduled to pilot the use of about 1,000 new energy vehicles each over the next three years. As one of the ten model cities of the program, Beijing plans to bring the total number of new energy vehicles in the city to 5,000 by 2012.

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What I'd love to see is more reports on the electrification of bikes and scooters in China, which are a significant and growing share of the electrical vehicle market.